Work in collaboration with the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) is leading the way in terms of prediction of risk of injury during racing. This is largely driven by the availability of highly relevant data for the whole population of Thoroughbreds at the HKJC.
Our models identified significant risk factors for post-race lameness and unacceptable performance following starts made by horses at the HKJC, including those related to the prior use of intra-articular corticosteroid injections and NSAIDs. These have been used since late 2024 to produce ‘risk profiles’ for horses entering HKJC races.
The ability of these models to correctly identify horses at significantly greater risk of a deleterious (primarily musculoskeletal) outcome is significantly better than all previous models developed by the same group. For example, of horses identified as being in the top 5% of risk, close to 50% of them sustained a deleterious musculoskeletal outcome either immediately after or soon after the race in question.
Not overstating the potential of any analytical tool is critical. The aim should not be to produce models that can ‘do all the work’. More realistic is that risk profiles can be used as an additional ‘advisory’ tool which the veterinarian (or trainer) can use to help inform decisions about suitability to race.
We will report detailed results of the final pre-production trial – risk profiling conducted during the second half of the 2024/25 HKJC racing season – as well as the impact of the ‘live’ risk profiling system over the first six months of the 2025/26 racing season.
This work demonstrates the value of industry management supporting ongoing efforts towards risk mitigation, including by investing in the collection and analysis of accurate and comprehensive data. Only when these are present does prediction and therefore prevention stand any chance of becoming a reality.